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Portfolio Management of Option-Based Investment in Technology Research and Development

机译:基于期权的技术研发投资组合管理

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This paper proposes a quantitative model for balancing and optimizing portfolio of R&D projects. The model focuses on two dimensions of uncertainty -- market and technical - to formulate R&D portfolio budget allocation problem. The investment is broken into two critical stages, namely R&D phase and commercialization phase. The real options analysis is then employed to allow for management flexibility, such as to defer the investment or to stop and later restart the investment costlessly. We utilize Monte- Carlo simulation technique to illustrate the model calculation using Gillette''s MACH3 numerical data. The simulation and sensitivity analysis results, which are studied through risk-return tradeoff, offer comparison and recommendation of an optimal portfolio management of R&D investment projects.
机译:本文提出了一种用于平衡和优化研发项目组合的定量模型。该模型着眼于不确定性的两个维度-市场和技术-制定研发组合预算分配问题。投资分为两个关键阶段,即研发阶段和商业化阶段。然后采用实物期权分析,以提供管理灵活性,例如推迟投资或停止并稍后以无成本的方式重新启动投资。我们利用蒙特卡罗模拟技术来说明使用吉列的MACH3数值数据进行的模型计算。通过风险与收益的权衡研究对仿真结果和敏感性分析结果进行了比较,并为R&D投资项目的最优投资组合管理提供了建议。

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