Monte Carlo Simulation and Contingency Enumeration in Bulk Power Systems Reliability Assessment

摘要

In reliability assessment of bulk power systems, two methods have been largely studied and used: contingency enumeration and non-sequential Monte Carlo simulation. Both have their wellknown advantages and drawbacks. Contingency enumeration is conceptually simple and usually requires low computational effort. Conversely, Monte Carlo simulation is computationally harder, but much more versatile to model random aspects. This paper depicts some major aspects regarding both methods. It also shows that it is not a matter of choosing the definite and unique technique, but how they can be used in a complementary way. A real power system, based on the Brazilian interconnected electrical system, and the commercial program NH2 are used to illustrate that both methods are feasible to bulk power systems, and can be used in order to achieve complementary results