Search theory, agent-based simulation, and u-boats in the Bay of Biscay

摘要

To date, most search theory study has focused either on analytical models of specific situations requiring rigid assumptions, or, as in the case of search and rescue, operational experiments aimed at obtaining detection probabilities for a variety of scenarios. Analytical search theory results provide bounds on empirical results. This research introduces an agent-based simulation approach to the subject of offensive search operations in combat. Generally, the value of a combat simulation is measured in terms of insights gained through experimentation. Agent-based simulation enables insights with regards to the emergent behavior of the individual combatants, groups of combatants, or the system as a whole. Emergent behavior for the purposes of this research is system behavior, not explicitly programmed, arising from local interactions between agents. Such behavior with respect to search effectiveness is investigated within the context of a historical case study involving offensive search.