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Correlation-Induction Techniques For Fitting Second-Order Metamodels In Simulation Experiments

机译:模拟实验中拟合二阶元模型的相关归纳技术

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This paper identifies two correlation-based strategies for designing a simulation experiment to estimate a second-order metamodel of the relationship between the levels of the input factors and the response of interest. Both strategies are shown to be superior to the method of independent random number streams. In the past, correlation-based strategies for metamodel estimation in simulation experiments has focused on first-order metamodels. However, in many simulation experiments it is reasonable to expect that the relationship between the levels of the input factors and the response of interest is better approximated by a second-order metarnodel. Thus second- order metamodels are, typically, of more interest to the simulation analyst. Both proposed strategies use the variance reduction technique of common random numbers to induce positive correlations between responses across design points and antithetic variates across replicates. For a large class of experimental designs and with respect to a variety of optimality criteria, both strategies are shown to give better estimates of the vector of unknown coefficients in the metarnodel than the method of independent random number streams across all design points. A numerical example is given to illustrate this point and to show that in practice, the second strategy yields better metamodel estimates than the first strategy.
机译:本文识别了三种基于相关的策略,用于设计模拟实验,以估计输入因子的水平与感兴趣的响应之间的关系的二阶元典。两种策略都显示出优于独立随机数流的方法。在过去,模拟实验中的基于相关的用于元模型估计的策略专注于一阶元模块。然而,在许多模拟实验中,期望输入因子的水平与利息响应之间的关系是合理的,并且通过二阶元结来更好地近似。因此,仿真分析师通常对二阶元晶片更感兴趣。这两个拟议的策略都使用常用随机数的方差减少技术来诱导跨越复制的设计点和抗动性变化之间的正相关性。对于大类实验设计和关于各种最优性标准,两种策略显示出在元旦中的未知系数中的载体估计,而不是在所有设计点跨越独立随机数流的方法。给出了数值示例以说明这一点,并且表明在实践中,第二策略产生比第一策略更好的元模型估计。

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