EVALUATING CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON A TROPICAL RESERVOIR

摘要

To evaluate the potential impacts of future climate change on a tropical reservoir, we used a calibrated waterrnquality and hydrodynamic model validated using three years of data (2007-2009) from Aguamilpa Reservoir (Mexico). Wernevaluated the changes due to altered air temperatures, inflow rates, and nutrient loads that might occur under Global ClimaternChange (GCC). Temporal total algae concentrations were used as an indicator to evaluate the sensitivity of Aguamilpa tornclimate change impacts and to compare the base case with GCC cases. We found that the total algae concentrations werernmore sensitive to changes in nitrates than to changes in the other variables. We compared the tropical results fromrnAguamilpa with a temperate reservoir model based on more available data. The total algae concentrations in Aguamilparnwere more sensitive to air temperature changes than those in the temperate reservoir, especially during the winter when totalrnalgae concentrations increased in the tropical model. These high algae concentrations can be dangerous to human health andrnimpact other reservoir processes. The models also showed that while the tropical reservoir was sensitive to nitrates andrninsensitive to phosphates, the temperate reservoir was the reverse being sensitive to phosphates but not nitrates. The studyrnresults can be useful for local and international institutions to predict how climatic changes could impact tropical reservoirsrnused for drinking water supplies, agriculture, and other uses.