Prospect interdependencies, if present and marked by a postitive correlation, result in ahigher volatility of the portfolio, compared to a portfolio with independent prospects. Thevolatility offers options for companies to increase the expected monetary value (EMV) of theexploration portfolio or any group of interdependent prospects. However the same volatilityadds uncertainty to the governments future reserves. In order to investigate these effects onthe Netherlands Gas portfolio, a methodology has been developed for modelling the effects ofdependencies. The methodology integrates Bayesian Belief Network techniques in astochastic exploration simulator. The results show that dependencies indeed raise theuncertainty of the future gas reserves. Such effects may change a companies or state's viewon the exploration strategy. The presented methodology may equally well be used on smallgroups of prospects and can also be used in decision tree analysis tools.
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