A BUS ARRIVAL TIME PREDICTION MODELINCORPORATINGTHE IMPACT OF SIGNALIZED INTERSECTIONS

摘要

It is known that stoppage times at signalized intersections cause the biggest errors in busrnarrival time prediction for real-time BIS (Bus Information System) services and no particularrnmethod is proven successful so far. This study developed a prediction method that comparesrnthe forecasted bus travel times (from bus stop to intersection stop line) using the Kalmanrnfiltering technique with the state of green indications of traffic signals and then incorporatesrnpossible stoppage into a next link travel times. From field surveys and in-lab simulation, thisrnnew method was found superior to other conventional techniques showing an average of 8 torn10% improvement in prediction accuracy pushing error size down to one third.