Business Cycles in the Electronic Equipment Food Chain -Growth Comparisons and Forecasts for Process Consumables Equipment, Passive Components, Semiconductors and Electronic Equipment

摘要

Fluctuating demand for electronic equipment has led to repetitive "boom and bust" business cycles throughout the electronics "food chain." Double ordering, inventory building and component outages in expansionary times are followed by recessionary periods where demand shrinks, excess inventory must be consumed and severe downward pricing and margin pressures are the norm. Raw material and process equipment suppliers see amplified demand in growth periods and severe draughts during recessions because of inventory building and reductions at each level of the supply chain.rnThis paper compares the relative growth (and time shifts) at each level of the supply chain at various periods in the business cycle. Items studied include:rn1. Economic indicatorsrn2. Electronic equipment orders, shipments and inventories by end marketrn3. Semiconductorsrn4. Connectorsrn5. Printed circuit boardsrn6. EMS demandrn7. Process consumables and equipment used to manufacture and test "members" of the electronics food chain.rnGlobal and N. American data sources are identified and utilized including process consumables from the IPC statistical surveys.rnThese data sources can be used to understand and predict the timing and magnitude of forthcoming downturns and recoveries in the electronic industry business cycle. The methodology discussed applies to the entire "food chain" - electronic equipment manufacturers, EMS companies, PCB and other component manufacturers and suppliers of materials and equipment to these companies.