Asphalt Pavement Performance Forecast by Using Gray System Theory

摘要

By analysis of the situation of PMS in China, the character of grey theory is explained to be suitable to the asphalt pavement forecast with insufficient pavement data. The GM (1, 1) forecast model was chosen according to the theory, the step how to establish the model and to examine its accuracy are also described. The GM(1,1) forecast model established in this way is a monotonous rise or drop tendency model which is suitable to the development tendency of asphalt pavement performance. An example is carried out under this way, through comparing the forecast data and the original data, the results shows the rationality of the forecast data and the development of the two indexes of asphalt pavement, crack rate and roughness. At last the characteristic and some problems in application of the forecast model are discussed.