基于灰色系统理论的缓冲回填材料导热性能预测

摘要

This paper regards heat-conducting property of buffer backfilling materials and its influence factors as a system to study.After analyzing in depth experiment on heat-conducting property of buffer backfilling materials under different dry density,water content,porosity and saturation,on the basis of the principle of grey system theory,this paper has carried on systematic simulation to heat-conducting property and thermal diffusivity of buffer backfilling materials (as the system output)and its influence factors (as the system input),having set up corresponding simulation model and designed algorithm.Furthermore,the author has developed “the simulation software system of the heat-conducting property of buffer backfilling materials”by using Microsoft Visual Studio as a developing instrument.With this system,the heat-conducting property of buffer backfilling materials system simulation and prediction in future has been realized successfully.From the results of real experimental data that the simulation software system operates,it can be concluded that this method has been good effect and high precision.The research has discussed the prediction questions for heat-conducting property of buffer backfilling materials (as output)in term of control (as input),having not merely offered the platform and tool for prediction and simulation at the heat-conducting property of buffer backfilling materials,the more important thing is that it has established the foundation for the buffer backfilling materials with high heat-conducting how to design and exploit on the last artificial barrier of high-level radioactive waste repository in future.%将以膨润土为基材的集成缓冲回填材料导热性能及其影响因素作为一个系统来研究，在深入分析集成缓冲回填材料不同干密度、不同含水量、不同孔隙度、和不同饱和度条件下的导热性能实验的基础上，基于灰色系统理论对集成缓冲回填材料的热传导系数和热扩散系数(作为系统输出)及其影响因素(作为系统输入)进行系统模拟，建立了相应的预测模型，设计了模型算法，并用 Microsoft Visual Studio为开发工具，研制了“集成缓冲回填材料导热性能模拟软件系统”，用该软件系统成功实现了以膨润土为基材的集成缓冲回填材料导热性能的模拟及预测，结合导热性能实验数据进行软件实证分析，从软件运行的实证数据看，预测效果好、精度高；从控制(输入)的角度研究集成缓冲回填材料热传导热系数和热扩散系数(输出)的预测问题，不仅为集成缓冲回填材料导热性能的预测和模拟提供了平台和工具，更重要的是为高放核废物处置库工程屏障开发出具有高导热性能缓冲回填材料奠定了基础。