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Probabilistic Reasoning with Hierarchically Structured Variables

机译:分层结构变量的概率推理

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Many practical problems have random variables with a large number of values that can be hierarchically structured into an abstraction tree of classes. This paper considers how to represent and exploit hierarchical structure in probabilistic reasoning. We represent the distribution for such variables by specifying, for each class, the probability distribution over its immediate subclasses. We represent the conditional probability distribution of any variable conditioned on hierarchical variables using inheritance. We present an approach for reasoning in Bayesian networks with hierarchically structured variables that dynamically constructs aflat Bayesian network, given some evidence and a query, by collapsing the hierarchies to include only those values necessary to answer the query. This can be done with a single pass over the network. We can answer the query from the flat Bayesian network using any standard probabilistic inference algorithm such as variable elimination or stochastic simulation. The domain size of the variables in the flat Bayesian network is independent of the size of the hierarchies; it depends on how many of the classes in the hierarchies are directly associated with the evidence and query. Thus, the representation is applicable even when the hierarchy is conceptually infinite.
机译:许多实际问题都具有带有大量值的随机变量,这些变量可以按层次结构构造为类的抽象树。本文考虑了如何在概率推理中表示和利用层次结构。我们通过为每个类别指定其直接子类别的概率分布来表示此类变量的分布。我们使用继承表示以分层变量为条件的任何变量的条件概率分布。我们提供了一种在贝叶斯网络中进行推理的方法,该方法具有层次结构化的变量,可以通过折叠层次结构以仅包含回答查询所必需的值,来动态构造平坦的​​贝叶斯网络,并提供一些证据和查询。只需通过网络一次即可完成。我们可以使用任何标准概率推断算法(例如变量消除或随机模拟)来回答来自平坦贝叶斯网络的查询。平坦贝叶斯网络中变量的域大小独立于层次结构的大小;它取决于层次结构中有多少个类直接与证据和查询相关联。因此,即使层次结构在概念上是无限的,该表示形式也适用。

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