AN EARTHQUAKE RISK ASSESSMENT METHOD BASED ON FUZZY PROBABILITY

摘要

This paper presents an outline of a proposed risk assessment system for evaluating expected damage of structures and consequent financial losses and casualties due to a likely earthquake. Uncertainties caused by insufficient knowledge about the correlation of parameters has been considered by fuzzy relations, while uncertainties in eliciting the likelihood of earthquake magnitude from scarce past events, has been expressed by fuzzy probability instead of conventional probability. The approach represents fuzzy probability by constructing a possibility distribution over probability out of a small data set and a sample case calculation is presented.