Quantification of winter severity for evacuation facility management and disaster prevention planning in cold regions

摘要

A method for quantifying winter severity in cold regions is proposed in order to assess the impact on evacuation facility management plans and disaster prevention plans considering winter climate factors such as snow precipitation, air temperature and wind velocity. Days meeting conditions of a) snow precipitation of more than 20 cm, b) maximum air temperature below 0℃., or c) blizzard or drifting snow are selected as representing significant weather factors. The selected days are then ranked from A to C according to the numbers of factors occurring on that day, with the simultaneous occurrence of all three factors defines as Rank A, two factors Rank B1-B2, and one factor C1-C3. The distributions of ranks among the municipalities in the same climate zone were very similar, indicating that this ranking scheme is a good indicator of winter severity in terms of climate zones. Municipalities that require modified disaster prevention planning for winter months can use the quantified winter severity proposed by this scheme as a guide, and the ranking scheme can also be used to modify disaster plans on a daily basis depending on daily ranking. It is hoped that the method proposed in this paper will allow local governments to estimate the type and frequency of winter disasters and help draw up customized disaster prevention and evacuation facility management plans.