Biofuels expert system ― a tool to increase predictability and flexibility

摘要

This paper is on the use of a software tool to manage the risks associated with fuel supply and technology selection for biofuels projects. The risks associated with dependence on only one biofuel for power generation can be limited by adopting a mix of biofuels. This, however, will affect the choice of technology for fuel preparation, thermochemical conversion, electricity/heat generation and emissions clean-up. Arup Energy has been developing a software tool to select appropriate plant based on inputs relating to the fuel mix. This paper will explain the mechanics behind this expert system, and explore how it may be used to manage the risks associated with the different fuels. This should serve to illustrate how the complexity arising from the large number of variables associated with biofuels projects can be confronted by narrowing the field of development, through processing technical, economic and environmental constraints.