UNCERTAINTY IN PETROLEUM FIELD DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS

摘要

The development of petroleum fields involves both technical and commercial uncertainties. The technical uncertainties associate with the geological and technical complexity of producing hydrocarbon resources, especially in hostile environments. The commercial uncertainties, in turn, associate with the capital intensity of the petroleum field development projects and the volatility of the petroleum markets. In addition, petroleum field development projects are usually large and complex, and their successful realization requires effective management of numerous activities, and, often, resolving conflicting interests of the parties involved in the projects. A better understanding of uncertainty is therefore essential for successful management of petroleum field development projects. The sample examined in this study included 48 Western and Russian experts in petroleum field development. The experts' responses to a questionnaire were used to identify the key uncertainty factors in the petroleum field development process and analyze the heterogeneity of the experts' opinions.