FUTURE U.S. GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSION REDUCTION SCENARIOS CONSISTENT WITH ATMOSPHERIC STABILIZATION OF CONCENTRATIONS

摘要

The paper analyzes a scenario for reducing U.S. greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that is consistent, in the near term, with the President's Global Climate Change Initiative (GCCI) and, in the longer term, atmospheric stabilization at 550 ppm. The purpose for formulating and evaluating such a stabilization scenario is to define the role and expectations for performance of carbon sequestration technologies in a future, speculative carbon-constrained world. The analysis shows that an integrated approach, involving energy efficiency, cost-effective renewables and availability of advanced CO_2 capture and storage technology, would be required for atmospheric stabilization. Under this scenario, the carbon intensity of U.S. GDP is reduced by 18% in 2012 below year 2002 U.S. carbon intensity per the GCCI. From 2012 to 2050, GHG emissions, including CO_2 and non-CO_2 GHGs, are further reduced toward an absolute annual emissions target of 1,200 million metric tons carbon (MtC), representing a substantial U.S. contribution toward a world-wide atmospheric stabilization concentration of 550 ppm. The analysis examines opportunities for reducing emissions in all sectors, including transportation, electricity supply, industrial, commercial and residential. It quantifies the potential contribution of the various GHG reduction options and shows that advanced, lower-cost CO_2 capture and storage technology will need to play a key role in any future GHG emissions reduction scenario.