Probabilistic estimation of debris-flow discharge by Monte Carlo simulation method

摘要

Equation of debris-flow discharge contains hydrogeological and topographical parameters. Considering the uncertainty of the parameters and using the Monte Carlo simulation method (MCSM), a debris-flow design discharge versus reliability probability at various return period is developed. The method proposed in this paper is used to estimate the debris-flow design discharge in fushing village, Hualien county, Taiwan. The results also compare with that by First-order second-moment method (FOSM).