A Condition based Power System Operational Risk Assessment method

摘要

In this paper, some key problems about operational risk assessment are well analyzed. The time-varying and condition-based component outage model was proposed, which can reflect the changes of weather and other operation conditions. A rank enumeration based system state selection method was used to perform risk assessment. Then, the problem of operational risk index was also addressed. In the last part of paper, two groups of numeral tests were presented. The first one showed that the risk assessment results using component instantaneous unavailability are quite different from the results using steady unavailability, and proves that component outage model with instantaneous unavailability should be used for operational risk assessment; The other one shows that the proposed time-varying component outage model can reflect the operation conditions’ influences on the risk assessment results.