The Research on Early Warning for Bubble and Price Information Management of Real Estate in China

摘要

In theory, consensus has been reached that extremely abnormal fluctuation of real estate price is the major factor that induce the bubble economy. Among scholars in real estate industry, it's still quite controversial how China should create and manage the early warning system for bubbles under the current over developed real estate industry in China. Chinese government has issued many macro regulation policies for real-estate, which drops a hint that the government has strong awareness for the early warning system. Is China's real estate industry already under the state of bubble? This is a question should be answered by actual measurement of the bubble. The management of bubble warning system in real estate is, in the economic sense, not only able to guarantee the healthy development of real-estate in China, increase the liquidity of the market, but also to provide data of true market value, equilibrium price, and efficiency of social resource allocation for the macroeconomic via the management of the early warning system.