An integrative model of natural hazard risk evaluation

摘要

Since risk mitigating measures have to be accepted by society, risk evaluation by lay people has to be considered in risk management. Due to time and financial constraints, it is impossible to gather this information on a case-by-case basis. Therefore, a model of risk evaluation that accounts for the public risk perception and evaluation is suggested. The perception affecting factors PAF and the objective risk R_(obj) are important for the perception of the risk. For the decision about the acceptance of risk the evaluation criteria EC are relevant. Together, the PAF, the EC and the R_(obj) allow one to predict the accepted risk R_(acc). According to the different types of human behavior, the model of 'Prospect Theory' is applied to obtain relevant information about the evaluation and acceptance of risk for different types of persons.