Ensemble Prediction To Evaluate Flow Dependent Variations In Predictability

摘要

In past decade, the methodologies followed at European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the Canadian Meteorological Center (CMC) and the National Centers for Environmental Predictions (NCEP) have been developed to simulate the effect of initial and model uncertainties onto the forecast error. In the recent study, the characteristics of these three global ensemble prediction systems (EPS) have been discussed, the objective evaluations have been taken by using the three ensemble forecasts for a 3-month period, September-November 2003. The synoptic example of probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecast (PQPF) has been presented. The importance of this study is not to rank the performance of the systems, but to identify possible reasons of superior/inferior performance, and thus to draw a guideline for future ensemble development.