Month-to-Month Predictability Variations of the Winter-Time Stratospheric Polar Vortex in an Operational One-month Ensemble Prediction System

摘要

Month-to-month variation in the predictability of the stratospheric polar vortex in the Northern Hemisphere winter is examined on the basis of the systematic error and the ensemble spread of the North Pole temperature using a seven-year archive of the operational ensemble one-month forecast dataset provided by the Japan Meteorological Agency.