An Aggregated Model for Predicting the Number of Casualties in a Major Condensed Phase Explosion in a Built-up Area

摘要

The assessment of a major condensed phase explosion hazard requires the determination of the number of casualties. In this paper, the effects of the explosion on people in the open for some particular injury modes, including lung haemorrhage, eardrum rupture, bodily translation, thermal injury and building damage are reviewed and the calculation equations of these injury/damage radii are given. Then an aggregated model for predicting the number of casualties in a major condensed phase explosion in a built-up area is put forward. Finally, a simulation calculation is performed. The following rough conclusions is obtained: (1) The building damage is the main one of those causes which cause casualties in a major condensed phase explosion in a built-up area. (2) If the TNT yield of the explosion is greater than or equal to 20 kg, then the thermal radiation lethality radium is greater than the bodily translation lethality radium, and the latter is greater than the blast wave lethality radium based on lung haemorrhage. (3) If the TNT yield of the explosion is greater than or equal to 20 kg, then first degree burn radium is greater than the blast wave injury radium based on eardrum rupture.