Human cognition performance model based evaluation of safe spacing in air traffic

摘要

This paper develops a mathematical model for cognitive performance of a tactical air traffic controller in an en-route air traffic context. The aim of this model-based approach is to enable the evaluation of both accident risk and aspects like cognitive workload and effectiveness in managing air traffic safely. Use is made of human error modelling, Hollnagel's cognitive mode model and Wickens Multiple Resources model. The paper describes how these psychological sub-models are combined into a single model of controller cognitive performance, and how the interaction of these human sub-models with the technical sub-systems is brought into account. The approach is applied to evaluate safe spacings for a conventional air traffic control example. The evaluation includes a bias and uncertainty assessment, and a safety criticality analysis.