Estimating the number of welfare facilities for the elderly in Korea with system dynamics

摘要

This research estimates the number of welfare institutions for the elderly and predicts the shortage of welfare facilities in the future as a result of Korean society's move toward a super aged society. Although the population of Korea is predicted to decrease, the elderly population is expected to increase in the future; thus it is evident that a shortage of welfare facilities will occur. Based on this forecasting result presented within this paper, the Korean government should prepare for entrance into an aged society by expanding the social infrastructure through increased support to residential and medical welfare institutions. An analysis of the results tells us that additional 1,368 residential and 10,956 medical welfare facilities will be needed in maximum to satisfy the future demands of the increasing elderly population, compared to the number of the two types of welfare facilities in 2007.