Climate, Water, Energy Nexus: Impact of Aerosols on Hydropower Generation in California

摘要

Hydropower generation is a crucial link in the climate-water-energy nexus. It has been discovered that natural and anthropogenic aerosols have a great influence on meteorological variables such as temperature, snowpack, and precipitation, which, in turn, impact the inflows into hydropower reservoirs. This paper takes the next logical step to explore the impact of aerosols on hydropower generation and revenue. A comprehensive framework is developed to quantify the impact of aerosols on hydropower generation and revenue by integrating the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Chemistry, a statistical hydrologic forecasting model, and the hydropower operation optimization toolbox. A case study is performed in the Big Creek Hydroelectric Project in California. The simulation results show that aerosols reduce inflows into the reservoirs of Big Creek hydroelectric system by 1-10%. This leads to a 6% reduction of annual hydropower generation, causing a $2.8 million loss in annual revenue.