Research on safety levels in the Chinese Construction Materials Industry based on Gray model forecasting

摘要

This paper is based on data relating to the complex and diverse Chinese Construction Materials Industry (CCMI). It designs a series of Gray models with variables such as supply and demand, import and export and so on, to investigate safety levels in CCMI. These safety levels are established in relation to a number of factors. The likely future development of CCMI safety during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan is analyzed. Our results show that there is a danger that CCMI safety will be reduced during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan, mainly because of overdependence on exports and lack of international competitiveness. Finally, the paper discusses how to improve CCMI safety during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan.