Accidents Occur Easily Waterway Judgment Method with Potential for Safety Improvement

摘要

Aiming at the shortcomings of current identification method on traffic accident in waterway, in the article the full Bayesian-based potential for safety improvement method is built based on Bayesian theory. The hot-segment of accident is identified with the difference between accident number of a segment waterway and accident expectation of entire waterway. As the difference increases, the potential for safety improvement increases. The new identification method is used to identify hot-segment of accident of the Yangtze River downstream and the results are compared with those of the accident statistics method, the empirical Bayesian method and the full Bayesian method, which proves that the new identification is the best. At last, three kinds of evaluation of SCT(site consistency test),MCT(method consistency test) and TRDT(total rank differences test) are used to evaluate the four identification methods and the new identification method is further proved the best.