Statistical Deterioration Prediction Model for Individual Infrastructure Considering its Heterogeneity

摘要

The deterioration processes of civil infrastructures are heterogeneous due to unobservable factorsrneven under the same structural and environmental conditions. In this paper, a Markov hazard modelrnis formulated to characterize the average hazard rates, and is extended to a mixed Markov hazardrnmodel by incorporating the heterogeneity in hazard rates. By doing so, the benchmarking model tornexpress the average deterioration processes and the statistical methodology for comparativernassessment of the hazard rates of the individual facilities is also presented. The applicability of thernmethodology presented in this paper is examined against the actual visual inspection datarnconcerning the bridge members.