Impact des changements climatiques sur Ies débits dans le bassin du Chéllif (Algérie)

摘要

Several recent studies have assessed the historical evolution of climatic and water resources. To observe this trend we selected the Chellif basin. located in northern Algeria. We evaluated the im?act of future climate chan?e on seasonal flows of 2020 and 2050. To better understand the imoortance of these im?ads. we have based our analvsis on average flow of the reference ?eriod (1961–1990) and compared them with those that might result from changes in the main direct constraints. The methodolosv used is based on the GRM2 model. The analvsis of the results showed a marked decrease in average monthlv flows over the oeriod. Bv 2020 the largest decrease of 28.17% was recorded in winter. followed bv autumn (16%V Bv 2050. the results will show a reduction of flow of about 40.16% and of 18% for winter and s?ring. For the Lower Chéllif and Mina, the lower rates are approximately 13.46% and 17.60% for the autumn and spring of 2050, respectively.