Chaotic Analysis on Precipitation Time Serial of Si Chuan Middle Part in Upper Region of Yangtze

摘要

Based on the introduction of main quantitative indexes (correlation dimension D_2 and Kolmogorov entropy) in reconstruction phase-space technique, according to precipitation time series of Si Chuan middle part in upper regions of Yangtze, relationship between embedding dimension m and correlation dimension D_2 is discussed and saturation correlation dimension, minimum embedding dimension and Kolmogorov entropy are calculated, that is, D_2 =5.11,m = 10 and k = 0.338. Meanwhile, primary component analytic method (PCA) is applied to validate its chaotic character and result shows forecasting length for this precipitation time series should be less than 2.96 years. Thus, chaotic analysis on precipitation time series provides a scientific gist for precipitation forecasting