Learning to be at risk: Are we victims of our own success?

摘要

Presented is the struggle between safety and human nature. There are many factorsrnthat can lead to unsafe behavior for which relatively few are punished by an accident or injury.rnThus the manner in which we reward or punish such behaviors contributes extensively to the resultingrnsafe or unsafe culture. Since 1935 aggressive initial attack in the pursuit of 10 A.M. firerncontrol has produced astounding results for agencies in the business of strict fire control. Aggressivernfire suppression has produced initial attack success rates in excess of 90% in the some of thernmost intense of fire regimes. Such astounding success (reward) has entrenched this strategy suchrnthat it has become an icon for fire control agencies. It has lead to unachievable expectations andrntherefore pressures from both the public and the fire suppression culture itself. It can easily be rationalizedrnthat the application of a business strategy that produces positive results over 90% ofrnthe time could only improve if it were applied more rigorously. This logic has indeed been appliedrnto the wildland fire control business as witnessed in countless fire reviews and investigations.rnIt is however wildland fires burning under what are relatively infrequent conditions of extremernfire behavior where nature demonstrates its considerable superiority over fire suppressionrntechnology. Fires under these conditions also account for the majority of area burned and putrnfirefighter lives in greatest peril from wildfire entrapments. There is a breaking point in the firernenvironment where aggressive fire suppression may reduce the threat to lives and property andrnwhere it will not. Beyond this point it is simply high risk and low reward. In terms of risk management,rnmanagers need to identify these conditions and adopt appropriate measures.