Forecasting the Monthly Generation of Municipal Solid Waste in Beijing in 2011

摘要

An understanding of the trend of municipal solid waste generation is the foundation of scientific waste management. This paper aims to forecast the monthly waste generation in Beijing in 2011, using Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average with exogenous process (ARIMAX) method. Our model reveals a strong correlation between total retail consumption sales and waste generation. It also indicates a notable seasonal pattern in the waste generation series. According to the model, the generation of municipal solid waste in Beijing is in a mildly ascending trend. The estimated total waste generation in 2011 is 693.65×104 ton.