New Evidence of Seasonal Price Transmission in Soybean International Market

摘要

The traditional and dominant commercialization system in the international soybean market has been strongly dependent on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) and Rotterdam Port. It's a common belief that prices from CBOT dominate the commercialization of the product and influence the strategies of all chain agents. However, the results found in this study confirm the dependency of both Brazilian and Argentine prices on the foreign market and that Rotterdam is more important than Chicago to price formation in both countries. The strong dependence of the Brazilian and Argentine FOB prices on CIF prices in Rotterdam, is different than dependence on USA prices, which are set within CBOT. Margarido et al. (1999) and Machado and Margarido (2001) obtained similar results to the Granger causality test that confirms the dependency of both Brazilian and Argentine prices on the foreign market. Another important result is that the amplitude of seasonal standard is more accentuated in the North American off-season period in Brazil and Argentine. On the other hand, the seasonal standard in Rotterdam is less accentuated than another series, because the supply in the European Union is constant throughout the year. These results can be expected for this market, because North American, Brazilian and Argentine crops occur in distinct periods of the year.