Rainfall Variability, Hunger, and Social Inequality, and Their Relative Influences on Migration: Evidence from Bangladesh

摘要

Research on climate change and migration usually assesses the effects of natural hazards and/or creeping environmental degradation on people's livelihoods and their migration. This chapter looks at changing rainfall patterns, local perception of these changes, and the decision to migrate, or not, to cope with rainfall variability and hunger. Based on empirical evidence from a case study undertaken in Kurigram District in northern Bangladesh, this chapter addresses four key questions: (1) Is the rural population sensitive to rainfall variability? (2) How is rainfall variability related to food security? (3) Which labour-migration systems can be used by the local people to cope with environmental shocks and adapt to change? and (4) Do people migrate for work to cope with and adapt to the effects of rainfall variability or because of food insecurity and social inequality? Although rainfall variability can play an important role in people's decisions to migrate, we argue that migration from the region is not driven so much by climate changes as it is by the persistent local patterns of social inequality and food insecurity coupled with the structural economic disparities that exist in Bangladesh.