Incorporating Uncertainty into Conceptual Design ofSpace System Architectures

摘要

The environment in which space systems are developed and operated can be classified as nothingrnless than dynamic. This paper introduces an approach to quantify and compare space systemrnarchitectures around the central theme of uncertainty, with emphasis on policy uncertainty, asrnwell as, technical and market uncertainty. Two cases of implementation are presented and tworngeneralized principles are proposed that flow from the analysis: 1) space systems must berndesigned with uncertainty as one of the central organizing principles, 2) since space systemsrnhave management and social dimensions and thus involve human interactions, there is anrnirreducible uncertainty associated with these dimensions that will affect the design of the system.