Vulnerability of cotton crop to climate change in salt affected soil

摘要

The vulnerably of cotton yield to climate change was simulated using a CropSyst model.Field trails were carried out at El-Serw(Demiatte Governorate)in 2010 and 2011 growing seasons.Three irrigation treatments were used,i.e.farmer's method of irrigation(characterized by large amount of applied irrigation),applying only required amount of irrigation,and irrigation on raised bed cultivation.CropSyst model was calibrated using data of the 1st growing season then validated using the data of the second growing season.Then,the model was used to simulate the vulnerability of cotton to climate change using two climate change scenarios(A2 and B2)developed by Hadley global climate change model.The results indicated that CropSyst model was able to predict cotton yield with high degree of accuracy for all treatments in both growing seasons.The results also pointed out that farmer's irrigation increased cotton vulnerability to climate change,where the average yield losses were 23-28％under A2 climate change,and 17-22％under B2 climate change scenarios,averaged over the two seasons,with the lowest water productivity.Lower yield losses were obtained when cotton was irrigated with irrigation amount applied for raised bed cultivation in both growing seasons.Losses in water productivity were observed under climate change in all irrigation treatments.However,the reduction was higher under farmer's irrigation method as compared with the other two irrigation treatments.These results emphasis the importance of using improved agricultural management practices,which increased cotton yield under current climate condition and will be lowering yield losses under future climate change conditions.