Prediction of Interdecadal Variation in Climate over NE China with countermeasures

摘要

The study shows that about 1.4℃ rise in mean temperature occurs between the 1900-1910s and 1980-1990s, with an abrupt change around 1990 due to climate shift. We also notice that the rise is 1.6℃ in winter, reaching roughly 1.3℃ in spring. Nationwide, the strongest warming is found in the northern par of NE China. It is worth noting that from the 1980s to present day the climate remains to be in warming, a phenomenon that has never happened in the last century. 5-model predictions of NE China climate for the future 30-50 years indicate a higher temperature rise in the year 2030 and 2050. The yearly mean would be the 1.94℃ rise in 2030, with 2.06, 1.26, 1.79 and 2.66℃ increase in spring, summer, autumn and winter, respectively. These results suggest that the highest increase is in winter, in order. The temperature increase is higher in the northern than in the southern part. The increase is expected to be kept in 2050, with annual mean rise of 2.42℃, with the ascent of 2.13, 1.68, 2.56.and 3.21℃, respectively in spring, summer, autumn and winter. The winter rise is the strongest, centered on the northern part of the region. Based on the above findings, the cumulative temperature band of T≥10℃ for crop growth would be shifted northward by approximately 5 latitudes. In 2050 the original first band would move to the north of the Daxinganling mountains and the other 4 bands be nearly eliminated. The dominant farming area of rice would be shifted into the Heilongjiang valley, the winter wheat zone be expanded for experiment. For this purpose 6 countermeasures are proposed for the structure of staple grain crops and the necessary adjustment of their regional distribution for the stable and high yields of crops in this region.