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Incorporating Stock Index in a Support Vector Regression Model to Improve Short Term Load Forecasting Accuracy

机译:在支持向量回归模型中纳入股票指数以提高短期负荷预测的准确性

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摘要

Recently emerged Support Vector Regression (SVR) model which incorporated temperature and calendar factors as input variables performed well in short term load forecasting. However, lacking of enough economic information in the regression model leads to poor prediction accuracy in months affected by the worldwide economic slowdown effect during years 2008 and 2009. To overcome this problem and improve load forecasting accuracy to better account for this economic slowdown effect, this paper proposes a new SVR approach that further incorporates the Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (TAIEX) as additional input variable to SVR model. The proposed SVR approach focuses on predicting island-wide hourly electricity load demand from year 2008 to 2009 in Taiwan. This paper also compares the results with conventional SVR approach, and reveals that the overall load forecasting accuracy, in the best condition, can be improved by 6.6% in average.
机译:最近出现的支持向量回归(SVR)模型将温度和日历因素作为输入变量,在短期负荷预测中表现良好。但是,在回归模型中缺少足够的经济信息会导致在2008年和2009年受到全球经济放缓影响的月份中,预测准确性较差。为了克服此问题并提高负荷预测准确性,以更好地说明这种经济放缓效应,论文提出了一种新的SVR方法,该方法进一步将台湾证券交易所资本化加权股票指数(TAIEX)作为SVR模型的附加输入变量。提议的SVR方法着重于预测2008年至2009年台湾全岛范围的每小时电力负荷需求。本文还将结果与常规SVR方法进行了比较,发现在最佳条件下的总体负荷预测准确性平均可以提高6.6%。

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