Perspectives from the Transportation Energy Futures Project

摘要

The TEF project concluded that energy efficiency technologies and renewable energy resource use could attain deep GHG abatement and petroleum reductions, while reducing fuel costs, but requirements for this type of future would include long-term infrastructure investment and substantial market uptake of both advanced vehicle technologies (to allow use of electricity and hydrogen) and advanced biofuels. Direct use of renewable resources (biofuels), combined with the use of energy carriers such as electricity and hydrogen made from renewable resources have the potential lead to a transportation energy future beyond petroleum that features lower fuel carbon content and a more varied energy resource base compared to today's system. Figure 2 below shows the combined impact on transportation petroleum use implied by the combined potential identified in each paper. TEF was completed in parallel with several other relevant major studies. A recent National Petroleum Council report and the latest Annual Energy Outlook from the U.S. Energy-Information Agency (EIA) imply that dramatic change to the transportation system was unlikely given their technology cost and performance estimates, and assuming no new policies are implemented. Since then, a major National Academies study of LDV options, ongoing analysis by UC Davis' Institute for Transportation Studies, and TEF have identified enormous upside potential for advanced technologies and low-emission strategies, including assessment of environmental implications beyond GHG emissions. Future work will continue to address consequences and challenges in reaching a low-carbon transportation system, outlined by TEF and other studies.