Factors Affecting Ocean-Going Cargo Ship Speed and Arrival Time

摘要

Due to the high density of ocean traffic and the influence of marine weather on the route planning of vessels, as well as berth allocation in harbors, it is important to be able to predict arrival times as precise as possible. This paper shows the influence of marine weather on ship speed by analyzing publicly available ship traffic and weather data from different sources. A linear regression model is created to explain recorded ship speed in terms of certain ship properties and marine weather. The model has an adjusted R~2 value of 83.98% with a significant correlation of many weather related data such as wind direction (0.211), significant wave height (0.195), peak wave period (0.133), as well as ship-related data including ship type, dead weight tonnage, and gross register tonnage. Given the variables in the model the speed of the ship could be estimated fairly well. These variables along with other factors are tested regarding their usefulness for the prediction of arrival times.