1. A couple of years of modest delivery increases as several new models ramp up 2. An economic downturn is predicted beginning in the 2020/2021 time frame a. Business jet sales will decrease commensurately b. Due to a lag effect, deliveries won't slow down until 2022 3. Concern of lack of a safety net during this downturn a. No particularly healthy worldwide regions to take up the slack if US falters ⅰ. In 2009, growing emerging markets helped cushion the blow to some extent ⅱ. Could conceivably send deliveries below previous 2016 trough of 667 units b. Fortunately, depth of next downturn is not anticipated to be as severe as last one.
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