Incorporating Fuzzy Reference Points into Applications of Travel Choice Modeling

摘要

The uncertainties involved in travel alternatives have an effect on travelers' choices, however travel choice models and commercial applications have limitations in capturing the uncertainty in the mind of the travelers. Travelers' preferences, as revealed in field studies and laboratory studies, are generally supported by the robust findings of Prospect Theory, a descriptive model of individual choice under risk and uncertainty. Prospect Theory models responses to risky situations framed as 'gains' and 'losses' defined over a reference point. However, different from choices made in economic/financial contexts, the concepts of 'winning' or 'loosing' in a travel choice context may be considered to be fuzzy rather than crisp. Extending the principles of prospect theory, this paper introduces a model based on a fuzzy representation of the travel time's reference point in the mind of the traveler.