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Forecasting multiple-period freeway link travel times using neural networks with expanded input nodes

机译:使用具有扩展输入节点的神经网络预测多周期高速公路的行驶时间

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The ability to The ability to forecast multiple period link travel times is a necessary component of real-time Route Guidance Systems (RGS). This paper examines the use of artificial neural networks (ANN) that incorporate expanded input nodes for this problem. Recent link travel time information is used as the primary input and this information is highly nonlinear which is problematic for conventional ANN. A sinusoidal transformation technique is employed for pre-mapping the input feature (i.e.the recent link travel times) in order to increase the separabiity of the function approximated and hence improve the prediction capabilities of the ANN. Actual link travel times from houston, Texas that were collceted as part of the automatic vehicle identification system of the Houston Transtar system were used as a test bed. The results of the best ANN with expanded input nodes were compared to a conventional ANN, a modular ANN, and other existing link travel time forecasting models including a Kalman filtering technique, an exponential smoothing model, a historical profile, and a real-time profile. It was found that the proposed expanded input neural networks outperformed a conventional ANN and other travel time forecasting models, and gave similar results to those of a modular ANN.
机译:预测多个周期链接行驶时间的能力是实时路线引导系统(RGS)的必要组成部分。本文研究了针对此问题并入了扩展输入节点的人工神经网络(ANN)的使用。最近的链路旅行时间信息被用作主要输入,并且该信息是高度非线性的,这对于常规的ANN是有问题的。为了增加近似函数的可分离性并因此提高了ANN的预测能力,采用了正弦变换技术来预映射输入特征(即最近的链接行程时间)。作为休斯敦Transtar系统自动车辆识别系统的一部分,来自德克萨斯州休斯顿的实际链路行驶时间被用作测试台。将具有扩展输入节点的最佳ANN的结果与常规ANN,模块化ANN以及其他现有的链接行程时间预测模型(包括卡尔曼滤波技术,指数平滑模型,历史剖面和实时剖面)进行比较。结果发现,提出的扩展输入神经网络优于传统的人工神经网络和其他旅行时间预测模型,并且给出了与模块化人工神经网络相似的结果。

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