Option-game Analysis in RD Investment under Demand Uncertainty

摘要

In this paper,the theories of real option and game are employed to analyze investment decision-making under demand uncertainty.In allusion to the factors of cost irreversibility,demand uncertainty and market competition,the influence of investment cost on enterprises'R&D investment decision-making is emphasized particularly,and a symmetric optiongame model of duopoly is set up.At last,the investment thresholds and equilibrium strategies for an enterprise being a leader or a follower in every stage are analyzed in the model.