ANALYSIS OF MARKET GROWTH CONDITION FOR FUTURE TYPE OF VEHICLES BASED ON CONSUMER CHARACTERISTIC MODEL

摘要

Increasing CO_2 emissions from vehicles is becoming a major concern in automotive society, and a variety of future types of cars are being intensively developed. This paper investigates the possibility of market growth of future cars, as hybrid-cars, electric vehicles and fuel cell cars, based on the consumer selection model for their performance and cost. The consumer model was calibrated using statistics of past data. The cost and performance of each type of car were estimated based on data from literature. The result of the analysis shows that during the next 20 years hybrid vehicles with an engine and electric motor will take a major market share, as well as conventional gasoline cars. The paper shows the critical cost of fuel cell vehicles to have a 10% share in 2020. Estimation of CO_2 emission change is also made for variety of scenarios.