Expert Judgement of uncertainties in modelling emergency actions after nuclear accidents

摘要

Sheltering, evacuation and distribution of stable iodine tablets are considered to be major early emergency actions aiming at diminishing the consequences after a release of radioactive materials from nuclear power plants into the air. Whether in real situations emergency managers will act accordingly is hard to predict. Uncertainties associated with these decisions are termed "volitional" uncertainties. These uncertainties, however, cannot be assessed by export judgements as they express the decision at stake in an emergency situation. Uncertainties on the times to implement countermeasures and on the times for the general population to respond to these measures can be assessed by experts, as they represent "lack-of-knowledge" uncertainties. This paper describes the difference in approach of both types of uncertainties and shows the results of expert judgements on the latter type of uncertainties in early emergency actions. Ten experts from seven European countries provided subjective assessments.