A Probabilistic Risk Analysis Model for Receiving Laser Eye Injury from Space Based Lasers

摘要

The European Space Agency ESA initiated a study, which dealt with the development of a risk model for laser induced eye injury. This study contributes to the minimisation of risks to the public caused by space flight projects and is summarised in this paper. The probability of an eye injury occurring in a given potential laser exposure scenario is a combination of the probability of being exposed to the laser beam and the probability of the level of the incident radiation energy producing eye injury. A probabilistic risk model with uncertainties has been developed to quantitatively model the risk for ocular injuries due to laser beams being emitted from satellite based lidars (atmospheric laser measurement systems). The risk model, to the knowledge of the authors, for the first time accounts for uncertainties associated with the variability that an ocular lesion is formed for a given laser exposure, as described by a dose-response curve. The needs of the user of the model will be summarised, the physical model discussed and the realisation, as generally applicable software, presented.