REAL OPTIONS ANALYSIS AS A NEW ECONOMIC TOOL LINKING CBM INVESTMENTS TO BUSINESS STRATEGY

摘要

Preventing unexpected equipment failures can provide important operational and economic benefits. Machinery failure prevention can be enhanced by implementing a condition-based maintenance (CBM) system with on-line, continuous monitoring of critical machinery. The economic analysis required to justify CBM acquisitions often follows the model used to evaluate other plant acquisitions. However, traditional machinery acquisition valuation methods do not adequately capture the operational and strategic benefits provided by CBM systems. A financial model derived from options in financial markets (e.g. puts and calls on shares or currencies) is proposed to help capture the unique and important benefits of CBM systems. In particular, a CBM system inherently provides future decision and investment options enabling plant personnel to avoid a future failure by making these subsequent investments (exercising the option). Future options enabled by an initial CBM investment provide economic benefits that are difficult to capture with traditional capital asset pricing models. Real options valuation methods are designed to capture the benefits of future investment and strategic options such as those enabled by a CBM system. Augmenting existing economic analysis methods with an option value pricing model can capture, in financial terms, the unique and important business benefits provided by CBM investments.