首页> 外文会议>55th International Astronautical Congress 2004 vol.5 >PROSPECTING FOR SPACE FUTURES THROUGH EXPLORATORY FORESIGHT
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PROSPECTING FOR SPACE FUTURES THROUGH EXPLORATORY FORESIGHT

机译:通过探索性远景展望空间未来

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This paper describes how visionary planners may apply Exploratory Foresight to think about far futures (i.e. beyond 30 years) in space. A compelling reason why this approach is valuable within the broader context of Foresight - that also includes Normative Foresight - is the deficiency of other methods for providing future references to augment the forecasts that strategic planners use. The paper describes the linkage between Exploratory and Normative Foresight exercises (a companion paper, entitled "Beyond ISS - Normative Foresight reveals Stepping Stones to the Future", describes the application of normative foresight in a space setting.) By "prospecting" the future and through "backcasting", Foresight practitioners trace "pathways" backwards to the present-day (2004) landscape. From the perspective of "observers inhabiting" several strategically defined far future scenarios the pathways linking "historic" events, that "were" prerequisite for each scenarios to become a reality. Any cross-cutting events identified along the pathways become the focus of special interest. An exploratory foresight pilot project with a broad scope admitting all the science and technology concerns of the Government of Canada concluded in 2003. Some of the conclusions are relevant to space. The paper describes the methodology applied and shows how it may be better adapted to a more focused and detailed project for space. This includes examples of how to manage such a project illustrated with a demonstration of characteristic tools.
机译:本文描述了有远见的规划师如何运用探索性远见来思考太空的远期(即30年以上)。该方法在更广泛的远见(包括规范远见)中有价值的一个令人信服的原因是,缺乏其他方法来提供未来参考以增强战略规划者使用的预测。该论文描述了探索性和规范性的预见性练习之间的联系(名为“超越国际空间站-规范性的预见性揭示了通往未来的垫脚石”的同伴论文,描述了规范性的预见性在空间环境中的应用。)通过“展望”未来和通过“回溯”,有远见的从业者将“路径”追溯到当今(2004年)的情况。从“观察者居住”的角度来看,在战略上定义了很远的未来场景是将“历史”事件联系起来的途径,而“历史”事件是每个场景变为现实的前提。沿路径确定的任何跨领域事件都成为特别关注的焦点。一个具有广泛范围的探索性预见性试点项目,该项目承认加拿大政府的所有科学和技术关切,于2003年结束。其中一些结论与空间有关。本文介绍了所采用的方法,并说明了如何更好地适应空间更集中,更详细的项目。其中包括有关如何管理此类项目的示例,并通过示例性工具演示进行了说明。

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